Written by Matthew Thorne, a delegate with Global Exchange’s international election observation mission in Honduras.
The question of U.S. intervention in the Honduran elections is in the air as around 6 million eligible voters head to the polls this November 30th. Amidst U.S. escalation of its rhetoric and military presence in the region, political tension and the spectre of violence is ratcheting up as later this week Hondurans will choose their president, all 128 congressional seats, 20 seats in the Central American Parliament, 298 mayors and over 2,000 municipal council members.
Several logistical mistakes and delays that occurred during the March primaries are certainly cause for concern, but of equal concern is that those errors are being used as pretext to undermine the integrity of the upcoming elections and set the stage for contesting the results. Improvements to the electoral systems since the March primaries “demonstrate that the process has a solid operational foundation for election day, even in areas where delays were identified in previous monitoring” according to the latest independent watchdog report and this has assuaged some, including U.S. Senator Peter Welch (VT).
However, the three leading parties continue to trade accusations and exacerbate fears amongst a polarized electorate. Attempts by the opposition parties to erode trust in the process has further contributed to a nervous atmosphere that could spell the possibility of contested results and post-election turmoil. For context, the 2021 elections saw 32 politically related homicides.
Hanging over the contest is a legacy of challenges to Honduran sovereignty. 2025 marked the 16th anniversary of the coup d’état that ousted then President Manuel Zelaya (2006-2009), with the infamous papering-over of the coup by the U.S. State Department under Hillary Clinton. The failures of the subsequent series of U.S.-backed post-coup governments, notorious for electoral fraud and defying constitutional term limits, are highlighted by the 45-year sentence being served by former President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party (2014-2022), who sits in a U.S. prison for drug trafficking. Meanwhile, Honduras remains the most impoverished country in Central America and voters have thus found little reason to trust in its institutions.
U.S. officials are not soft spoken on the issue. Just this week U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27), of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee characterized the Libre Party candidate Rixi Moncada as “the heir to the communist throne” and claimed that Moncada “wants Honduras to look just like Cuba.” The rhetoric from Salazar sets up a clear pretext for the Trump administration to target a potential Moncada win by lumping her together with other ‘communist’ targets in Latin America.
Salazar, who is heading to Honduras to lead a U.S. congressional delegation of observers, was sure to state the quiet part out loud – “the eye of the United States is upon Honduras this November 30th.” These statements addressed to the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee of which she is the chair, echo the long shadow of U.S. expectations of Honduran conformity and seemingly celebrate the infamous coup d’état, “16 years ago, the military saved its country from communism and today, they need to do the same thing.”
The rhetoric from Salazar, who underlines that her message is “supported by the State Department and the Trump administration”, carries significant weight amidst the buildup of U.S. military activities in the region, which includes the precedent-setting hosting of U.S. military attack planes in neighboring El Salvador, as well as airstrikes in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific killing 83 people which the UN has labeled as ‘extrajudicial executions’.
A long dependable framework of Honduran economic, political and military deference which was designed by the U.S. for the original Banana Republic in the late 1800s, may be in question. In January, current Honduran President Xiomara Castro of the Libre Party threatened to expel the U.S. military from Soto Cano Air Base in response to the Trump Administration’s mass deportation plan. Soto Cano is the largest U.S. military base in Central America, currently houses Joint Task Bravo, and carries the legacy of U.S. Colonel Oliver North who utilized the base for the Iran-contra operations in the ‘80s. Castro stated that “without paying a cent for decades they maintain military bases in our territory, which in this case would lose all reason to exist in Honduras.” Castro’s bold positioning was one single point in the long story of U.S.-Honduran relations that will continue to be written this November 30th.